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c789654|2011-10-10 12:52
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WTPN21 PHNC 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090251Z OCT 11//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 100300)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS:
THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.9N 95.9W HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KTS AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
11.0N 95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY
EXPOSED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCLUDING ONE FROM A 100230Z AMSU-B PASS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 03 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS (EXACERBATED BY AN OPPOSING
STORM MOTION), THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION, AND THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO
MEDIUM.//
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東太3旋無望
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