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c789654|2011-10-18 13:48
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升格MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 180300MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIANOCEAN REISSUED/180300Z-181800ZOCT2011//RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 89.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 88.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 171200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES WEST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//NNNN |
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