【西太】98W 取消評級成為16W的補品！

frintezza · 2012-8-19 12:40

看看老J評為LOW的一報
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 151.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROADLY
TURNING, BUILDING CONVECTION OVER WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN AREA OF TIGHT
TROUGHING, AS INDICATED BY THE 181149Z ASCAT AND 181404Z OSCAT
PASSES. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS NO EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) BUT PERHAPS RATHER A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED A COUPLE OF DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL POSITIONED FURTHER EAST, WHILE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 27-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. DUE TO A LACK OF EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THE EXISTENCE OF A LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

老J說98W根本就沒有LLCC, 只是中層旋轉明顯
現時風切中等
但東面的TUTT為98W加強向東的輻散, 而向南的流出亦良好
就因為找不到LLCC, 老J才評為LOW

........

便當S.Denny · 2012-8-19 14:17

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
151.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD
TURNING WITH WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION. IT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LLCC BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS
DEPICTED IN MSI. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED A COUPLE OF DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS UNDER MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VWS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL POSITIONED FURTHER EAST, WHILE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA FROM
PARA 1.A.(2), AND THIS REGION COULD BE ABSORBED INTO THAT DEVELOPING
REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS REGION ABSORBING INTO THE
DEVELOPING LLCC FROM PARA 1.A.(2) AND A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
IN ITS OWN RIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

升MEDIUM囉~~~可是看起來97W好強勢欸...能不能撐到TC再被吃掉呢哈哈- -

950233 · 2012-8-19 14:37

本帖最後由 950233 於 2012-8-19 15:57 編輯

雖然和掠食者(?)
97W同樣被評價為MeDIUM.
不過仍然有機會自立自強(?)的哦!!

jwpk9899 · 2012-8-19 16:29

TPPN10 PGTW 190632
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NE OF GUAM)
B. 19/0532Z
C. 19.9N
D. 152.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 75NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HERMANN

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T值分析到2.0 要是能撐下去可能晚一點就TCFA...