簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2013-1-21 14:36
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發布TCFA囉 現在看起來就像一個颱風了~
未來可能又會穿過陸地 不過去年他的前輩Jasmine就是穿過這後大爆發 飆到Cat4的
WTPS21 PGTW 210430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 139.5E TO 14.4S 143.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210232Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
140.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CONJUNCTION WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND, SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 210023Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED 30 KNOT WINDS WERE LOCATED IN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (30 TO 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BASED ON THE FORMATIVE BANDING, FAVORABLE SSTS,
AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220430Z.//
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