24S.Jamala 發出FW

Meow · 2013-5-10 15:07

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2013-5-10 15:29 編輯

MFR 稍早升格並由模里西斯命名之。

WTIO30 FMEE 100646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20122013
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (JAMALA)
2.A POSITION 2013/05/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 86.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/05/10 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/05/11 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/05/11 18 UTC: 10.2 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/05/12 06 UTC: 10.4 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/05/12 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/05/13 06 UTC: 10.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/05/14 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2013/05/15 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WEST THANKS TO THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. GENERAL PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. LLCC IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS PRESENT WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT WIND-SHEAR. SYSTEM HAS BEEN
NAMED JAMALA AT 0500Z BY METEO MAURITIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY ON A SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER THE
SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS STRONG BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
TOMORROW , THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND THEN WIND-SHEAR SHOULD CLEARLY DECREASE AS THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS EFFICIENT OVER THE BOTH SIDES (EQUATORIAL
WESTERLY BURST AND SUBTROPICAL BELT EXISTING EAST OF 70E). THIS GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY AND THEN SYSTEM
MAY DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
WITHIN THE MID LEVELS, A RIDGE BUILDS UP SUNDAY AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THIS PATTERN, A SLOW
DOWN OF THE TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTH-WESTWARD DRIFT. MONDAY, THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND A
RIDGE SHOULD BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH-WEST ALLOWING A WESTWARD TURN
WITH A FASTER MOTION.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, NORTH-EASTERLY THEN NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT AND SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN
UNDERGOING THIS STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS AND SOME MEMBERS OF
THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE LESS INTENSE AND
COULD TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD A BIT LONGER
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL LOW LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO IS LOWER IN VIEW
OF THE LAST RUN. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE GENERAL
PHILOSOPHY OF ECMWF (MORE WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST) AND AMERICAN
MODEL FORECAST TRACKS THAT ARE CONSISTENT FOR A WHILE NOW.=

複製代碼

Meow · 2013-5-11 22:46

從命名到 MFR 發佈最後警報竟然都沒人理？:Q

WTIO30 FMEE 111234 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-JAMALA)
2.A POSITION 2013/05/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 87.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/05/12 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2013/05/12 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2013/05/13 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2013/05/13 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2013/05/14 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2013/05/14 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/05/15 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2013/05/16 12 UTC: 10.1 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
****************CORRECTIVE ON THE WARNING NUMBER********************
EX-JAMALA KEEPS ON WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS, MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST GENERALLY A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTIO
N. SUNDAY, WITHIN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS, A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. EX-JAMALA IS TH
EREFORE EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARDS TRACK. IT SHOULD REMAIN ON
THIS TRACK UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THIS TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH ONLY PO
LEWARD INFLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, FROM MONDAY.
RE-GENERATION OF EX-JAMALA IS NOW VERY UNLIKELY. THE LAST AVALAIBLE NWP DETERMINISTIC MODELS (CEP,
ARPEGE, ALADIN, UKMO ...) AND THE LAST ECMWF NWP EXCLUDE THE RE-GENERATION SCENARIO.
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.