ben811018

JMA RSMC 最新路徑出來囉！

先撞呂宋.....

zjk369

西南季候風今日為華南沿岸地區帶來炎熱的天氣。同時，一個低壓區今日在菲律賓以東海域形成，並為該區帶來不穩定天氣。
台灣天氣及熱帶低壓概況報告 (05:00 / 11:00 / 17:00 / 23:00 更新)
07fW01278
中央氣象局氣象報告
１０２年６月２７日２３時０分發布
６月２７日２０時天氣概況：
　　一、高氣壓１０１４百帕，在北緯２０度，東經１３９度
，即在日本南方海面，中心近似滯留。
　　二、熱帶性低氣壓１００６百帕，在北緯９度，東經１３
１度，即在菲律賓東方海面，中心近似滯留，有發展為輕度颱
風的趨勢。

阿隆

丹尼兒

gfs最新一報 往北東修很多了  照這路徑對台灣西南部陸地有一定程度威脅...而且影響時間就再30號(周日)~7/2(周二)上午 ..   今天已經28號了 時間相當近
當然變動依然有   今天傍晚~周六一整天颱風的移動及發展將牽扯到颱風本身對台影響大小與否了

這個系統應該算今年較有較高機率影響台灣的一支了  未來發展的確值得注意

zjk369

台灣天氣及熱帶低壓概況報告 (05:00 / 11:00 / 17:00 / 23:00 更新)
07fW01289
中央氣象局氣象報告
１０２年６月２８日５時０分發布
６月２８日２時天氣概況：
　　一、高氣壓１０１４百帕，在北緯２０度，東經１３９度
，即在日本南方海面，中心近似滯留。
　　二、熱帶性低氣壓１００４百帕，在北緯９．５度，東經
１３０．５度，即在菲律賓東方海面，向西北緩慢移動，有發
展為輕度颱風的趨勢。

colinwoo

南海北部的風切正在減弱，而呂宋以東的風切卻正在增強中! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real ... rod=sht&zoom=&time=

h122366354

美軍已發布TCFA(TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT)

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/an ... nings/wp9913web.txt

WTPN21 PGTW 271930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 130.8E TO 13.1N 126.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271452Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 509 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILLIPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS
BROAD, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS CONSOLIDATING BENEATH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN PALAU AND MINDANAO. A 271106Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, BUT IMPROVING, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AROUND THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A
271452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20-25
KNOT WINDS. A 271800Z NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATED 230 WINDS AT 20
KNOTS AND 1006.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASING, BUT STILL MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, POSSIBLY INCREASING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281930Z.
//
NNNN

jwpk9899

額...看一下PAGASA的路徑吧
熱帶性低氣壓GORIO