簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-4-3 06:40
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升評Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 86.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF TURNING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
THE POSITION OF THIS INVEST WAS REPOSITIONED FURTHER EAST IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE LAST ABIO UPDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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