簽到天數: 3290 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-6-12 07:50
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稍早評級Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 114.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, UN-DEFINED LLCC. A 111820Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOOSELY-WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED POLEWARD OFF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
LIMITED OUTFLOW AND IS IN A LOW TO MODERATE (1O TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
目前對流底層仍屬散亂
周圍風切偏強
還有待整合發展
由於GFS昨天下午又停止更新= =
所以用UKMET數值(呃…參考參考就好
JMA12Z預估48小時內就有機會升格TD
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