1410麥德姆快速北上轉化溫氣

blackcat · 2014-7-19 10:03

大J 00Z這報是略為北調
各家目前看法趨於一至
但誤差圈就...

krichard2011 · 2014-7-19 11:36

PAGASA 命名HENRY
預測路徑大致跟其它機構差不多

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM #HenryPH (MATMO)
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 19 JULY 2014

TROPICAL STORM “HENRY” CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AS IT INTENSIFIES.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “HENRY” was estimated based on all available data at 560 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.0°N, 131.2°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120kph.

Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 19 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Storm “HENRY” is expected to be at 470 km East of Virac, Cantanduanes by tomorrow morning and at 410 km East of Tuguegarao Cagayan by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, it is expected to be at 120 km East of Basco, Batanes.

• Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.
• Tropical Storm “HENRY” will not yet affect any part of the country. However, fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture into the eastern seaboard of Visayas and Mindanao.
• Tropical Storm “HENRY” is expected to enhance Southwest monsoon and may bring moderate to ocassionally heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms over Visayas and Mindanao especially on the western section.
• The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.

logdog · 2014-7-19 11:42

個人看法是這樣的
這個小麥一定要在130度東經以東就要開始轉西北
不然台灣連海警都不用發
130E就快到了
到時就見真章了

powerng · 2014-7-19 11:46

只要延遲轉西北，就有可能發海警，影響巴士海峽一帶。

kuo870202 · 2014-7-19 11:54

blackcat 發表於 2014-7-19 10:03
大J 00Z這報是略為北調
各家目前看法趨於一至
但誤差圈就...

這種摩過南部的走法剛好避開了中央山脈的摧殘...

丹尼兒 · 2014-7-19 12:00

往西調整也只是雲系再調整而出現的現像....現在颱風結構大致已整合鞏固完成發展CDO中...差不多是該走回偏北正軌路徑了

各位可以觀察下連續動畫(可見光更詳細)可以發現10W從10:30已出現減速停滯狀況雲行走向也開始變了偏西情況應該就到此止了

沒意外下午小麥有較大偏北福度情況即將出現 gfs預測東登機會不是沒有可能持續看下去