(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N143.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH-EAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ACONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTEDBANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERNPERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING OVERTHE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING UPPERLEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CREATING LOW TOMODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICMODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUMSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEALEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
