t02436

JTWC發佈TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
145.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER NORTHERN QUADRANTS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

JMA 00Z升熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 143E WEST SLOWLY.


中心現在呈現半裸露狀態

krichard2011

JTWC 稍早升格TD 01W
看看JMA稍後會不會發佈GW

WP, 01, 2015011312,   , BEST,   0,  89N, 1418E,  25, 1004, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  180,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,         TRANSITIONED, wpA22015 to wp012015

底層方面 仍有待整合...

果然發布GW了

WTPQ20 RJTD 131200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 131200UTC 08.5N 141.8E POOR

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 141200UTC 09.7N 137.6E 120NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =

blackcat

92W GW圖


美軍預測顛峰55kts 以一月颱來說其實還不差

ben811018

JTWC 首報路徑

ben811018

晚上的風場掃描
剛剛好掃到

krichard2011

儘管衛星雲圖看到她對流爆得如此劇烈
不過從底層大概就知道是怎麼一回事了
目前似乎還是受到風切的影響
高低層始終無法順利整合起來
深層對流還沒有完全覆蓋在LLCC上方
不過GFS仍預測後期北轉的途中將會接上高層西風噴流
帶來的流出 將有利這個系統的發展
不過北轉之後 下場不是被北方強大風切給切死
大概就是被北方低海溫給冷死了

ben811018

後期路徑充滿變數
EC這報預期在通過菲律賓時將北轉
路徑似GFS..