09S.Eunice 西南印度洋史上最強熱帶氣旋誕生!

Meow · 2015-1-29 20:34

JTWC 和 SSD 都分析 T6.0，要評價 SSHWS 四級了。

Meow · 2015-1-29 20:47

這次是別人截取的。其實長得還挺好看的，眼也還算乾淨。

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... n_29_2015_0910Z.jpg

krichard2011 · 2015-1-29 21:07

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-1-29 21:15 編輯

MFR 升格 ITC
目前上看105KT
不過目前對流有爆回來的趨勢
如果如預期的夜間對流爆發
會不會有什麼驚喜也不一定

Bulletin du 29 JANVIER à 16H15 locales:
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EUNICE.
Pression estimée au centre: 944 HPA.
Position le 29 janvier à 16 heures locales: 16.1 Sud / 66.9 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1285 km au secteur: EST-NORD-EST.
Distance de Mayotte : 2360 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-EST, à 17 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le "Communiqué d'Activité Cyclonique" (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

WTIO30 FMEE 291244

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 66.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/30 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/30 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/31 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/31 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/02/01 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/02/01 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2015/02/03 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0-

DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, EUNICE HAS STRENGTHENED. CLASSICAL AND
MICROWAVE (SSMI 1022Z) SATELLITE IMAGERIES REVEAL A WARMING EYE AND A
RING OF INTENSE CONVECTION. CURRENT ASSESSMENT IS COHERENT WITH AMSU
DATA.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UP TO SATURDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
LESS GOOD. BUT, THANKS TO THE LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD
POLERWARD OUTFLOW, EUNICE SHOULD REMAIN ITS INTENSITY.
FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
WESTWARD AND SO EUNICE SHOULD CURVE EASTWARDS THEN EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS
FROM MONDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKENING.
MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD
ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

Meow · 2015-1-29 21:49

西南印度洋難得的景緻：昨天 VIIRS 截取的 Eunice 和 Diamondra。

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=85187

Meow · 2015-1-29 22:19

JTWC 上望 140kt 了，一個月就有兩個。:lol

WTXS32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 66.9E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.3S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.0S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.6S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.4S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.9S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.3S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
5 NM EYE. A 291022Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON MATCHING
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY INCREASE (25
KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC EUNICE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NER MODIFIES AND BECOMES MORE
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING
PROCESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(DIAMONDRA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

Meow · 2015-1-29 22:53

基於 1430Z 雲圖可分析 T6.5 以上，最新底層掃描亦顯示結構比 Bansi 厚實。

krichard2011 · 2015-1-30 00:57

Eunice發威了
CMG已經完整一圈並且發展出大範圍的CDG
只差沒有環起來
目前看起來 VITC可能有機會挑戰看看

Meow · 2015-1-30 03:09

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2015-1-30 03:41 編輯

不到 20 天，西南印度洋就形成四個命名風暴，其中兩個都成為特強熱帶氣旋了。MFR 評價 Eunice 最大風速 120 節、中心氣壓 915 百帕，憑氣壓取代 Bansi 成為該區年度風王。

WTIO30 FMEE 291918
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20142015
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 67.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 410 SE: 410 SW: 340 NW: 340
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/31 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/02/01 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/02 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2015/02/03 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=CI=7.0-
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, EUNICE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHOW NOW AN IMPRESSIVE EYE PATTERN WITH A 20 NM DIAMETER FAIRLY PURE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMOOTH CDO. AT 18Z, RAW DT AVERAGED OVER 3HR IS AT 6.9 AND IS CHOSEN AS FT. OTHER DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AT 6.5 (110-115 KT 10 MIN WINDS) AND 7.0 (120-125 KT 10 MIN WINDS). ADT SEEMS TO BE BIASED TOWARDS LOWER VALUES DUE TO A POOR CENTER POSITION THIS AFTERNOON ... BUT DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS RAW DT RANGE FROM 6.8 TO 7.0.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UP TO SATURDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO BECOME LESS GOOD. BUT, THANKS TO THE LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD POLERWARD OUTFLOW, EUNICE SHOULD REMAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT (SEEN ON 06Z OUTPUTS FROM THE EC MODEL).
FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WESTWARD AND A DEEP HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF EUNICE AND SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS. THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THAT TIME WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINU TO DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR (LOWER RELATIVE SHEAR HOWEVER) AND ALSO (MAINLY) SOME VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 20S.

JTWC 倒是只評價最大風速 130 節，可能因為 SSD 沒分析到 T7.0 而只有 T6.5。