0908morakot

  熱帶風暴  
編號：07 E
名稱：Felicia


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 07 月 18 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 07 月 23 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 07 月 27 日 21 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速： 35   kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：1004 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
99E.INVEST.20kts-1008mb-7.6N-104.4W


NHC:0%

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the low moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

在數日的High評級過後
NHC 09Z升格07E
但不看好系統能夠獲得命名

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230834
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
300 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become better organized tonight, with a curved
band wrapping around the southern semicircle of the circulation.
Based on the increased convective organization, the system is now
classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.

There is not much of an opportunity for the depression to
strengthen, with moderate northerly shear expected to persist until
the system crosses the 26C isotherm in about a day. As a result,
the intensity guidance shows little strengthening and the NHC
forecast follows this trend. However, it is possible that the
cyclone could briefly reach tropical storm status even though that
isn't explicitly forecast here. The cyclone should weaken to a
remnant low by 48 hours due to cold waters and a dry, stable
airmass. The low is forecast to dissipate by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 330/08. The depression should
move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours and then turn westward under
the influence of the low-level ridge as it becomes a shallow system.
The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models through dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 18.0N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 20.2N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 21.3N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 22.1N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/0600Z 22.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

t02436

結果還是命名Felicia了
明天開始受到海溫影響將逐漸減弱

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231435
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
900 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

Conventional satellite imagery and a couple of recent microwave
overpasses show that spiral banding has improved during the past
several hours, particularly over the eastern and southern portions
of the cyclone.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are T2.5/35 kt, supporting an upgrade of the system to a tropical
storm.  Although Felicia has about 24 hours or so before
moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment,
persistent northerly shear should impede any significant
strengthening. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance all
show Felicia weakening to a remnant low in 48 hours, and this is
reflected in the official forecast.  Global models subsequently
indicate the cyclone dissipating or opening up into a trough in 4
days or less.

The initial motion is estimated to be 320/11.  Felicia is forecast
to continue moving northwestward within the mid-level flow on the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge during the next 24-36
hours.  Afterward, the dynamical models show Felicia gradually
turning westward as the system degenerates into a remnant low and is
steered by the low-level tradewind flow.  The NHC forecast is
basically an update of the first advisory, and closely follows the
GFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 19.1N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 20.1N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 21.2N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 22.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts