WYS127

MingYuanPan@FB 發表於 2015-11-13 22:50
準26號颱風

請樓主充實發言內容，並盡量避免過於武斷的說詞。目前95W是否有機會升格仍是未定數，準台風似乎言之過早

甜心

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 168.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MORE EXTENSIVE
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM. A 160348Z 37GHZ
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH AND EAST
PERIPHERIES. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A MORE PRONOUNCED
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS AND ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

JMA預測24小時之內增強為熱帶性低氣壓

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 160800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 168.1E TO 7.8N 160.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 167.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
166.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 167.5E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH
OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160445Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY
REVEALS A MORE PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS AND
ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170800Z.//
NNNN

t02436

JTWC速報升格27W




這對流爆的有點猛烈...


底層也有點厚實....


首報路徑預測圖
暫時上望C2

t02436

JMA00Z升格熱帶低壓，認為中心風速已達30節，發出W。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 04.1N 162.5E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Meow

JMA同步升格並發佈[W]。



WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 04.1N 162.5E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成27年11月17日16時00分 発表

<17日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 4度30分(4.5度)
東経 161度25分(161.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<18日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 5度40分(5.7度)
東経 157度00分(157.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

JTWC 06Z速報升格TS

27W TWENTYSEVE 151117 0600   4.1N  161.6E WPAC   35   996