0908morakot

  中度颱風  
編號：1527 ( 28 W )
名稱： 茉莉 ( Melor )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 12 月 07 日 21 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 12 月 11 日 14 時
停編日期　　：2015 年 12 月 17 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：菲律賓 薩馬島
                                    索索貢省
                                    布里亞斯島
                                    民都洛島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：43 m/s ( 13 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：50 m/s ( 95 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)  ：125 kts ( CAT.4 )
                                                   
最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 945 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 180 公里
十級風半徑　　： 50 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
96W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.6.5N.151.2E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JMA升格熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 08N 149E WEST SLOWLY.

alu

看起來西太今年準備破紀錄，讓一年十二個月成為有觀測以來月月有颱風形成的紀錄

typhoonman

96W還在朝西穩定行進，可能要等高壓東移後才會有較明顯的北移。

t02436

JTWC終於評級Low...

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4N 144.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN AREA OF REVERSE-
ORIENTED TROUGHING. A RECENT 092344Z ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITHIN THE TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS, PROVIDING SUPPORT TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A RECENT
SURGE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FAVORABLE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成27年12月10日22時05分 発表

<10日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 6度55分(6.9度)
東経 142度50分(142.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<11日09時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 8度20分(8.3度)
東経 140度20分(140.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)

<11日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 9度40分(9.7度)
東経 137度50分(137.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 101229Z ASCAT PASS
AND A 101546Z RSCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AREA OF STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT AND
RSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE DEVELOPING LLCC, WITH MUCH LIGHTER
10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC
WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

蜜露

昨日可說是相當成功的進展 , 現在渦度已經泛紅.
JMA已經發GW了 (發展颱風趨勢)
最近風場掃描沒掃到. 要等下報.



前方風切有20kt以上. 且有增強趨勢. 希望發展不要受太大影響
爭取命名達成一項紀錄也好.




未來路徑會非常奇妙