簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2016-1-21 18:00
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06Z升格熱帶低壓，保守估計等等12Z就會命名了。
ZCZC 704
WTIO30 FMEE 210638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
2.A POSITION 2016/01/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 74.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 590 SW: 560 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/21 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/01/22 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/01/22 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/01/23 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/24 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/25 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2016/01/26 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED WITH
THE EMERGENCE OF A CURVED BAND, BECOMING BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED.
AT 06Z, THIS BAND IS WRAPING AROUND A GOOD HALF OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH IS WORTH T=2.5 IN DVORAK ANALYSIS. 0340Z AND 0430Z
ASCAT SWATHS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOW WINDS
RANGING FROM 30KT UP TO 35KT, EVEN REACHING LOCALLY 40KT. THIS
SUGGESTS DVORAK ANALYSIS COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE SYSTEM
INTENSITY. ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SUGGEST
THAT TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS ARE PROGRESSIVELY APPEARING, ONE IN THE
NORTH AND ONE IN THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARD, OVER THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
WHILE REMAINING UNDER A CELL OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONSTRAINTS.
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, AHEAD OF A POLAR TROUGH, THE LOW WILL DRAW BENEFIT FROM GOOD
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY.
CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
EAST, AND TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON FRIDAY, AND BEND SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE OHC DECREASE SOUTH OF
27S. THE LOW MAY WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM
SUNDAY EVENING. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MAY MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS
SOUTH.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT.=
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