簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2016-2-12 22:24
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JTWC評價105節、FMS評價90節,分別達到三級熱帶氣旋以及四級強烈熱帶氣旋
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 121345 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S 171.4E AT 121200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 07
KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.
EYE WELL DEFINED. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANIZATION GOOD. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN, OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W IN CMG RING
WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=6.5. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5.FT BASED ON PT
THUS, YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 22.0S 171.7E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 24.1S 172.8E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 25.2S 174.6E MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 25.0S 176.5E MOV ESE AT 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 122000 UTC.
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