老農民版夜神月

  中度熱帶氣旋  
編號：07-20182019 ( 93 S )
名稱： Eketsang

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 01 月 21 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 01 月 24 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 01 月 27 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國氣象局 ( MFR )：40 kts
聯合颱風警報中心 ( JTWC )：30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓：992 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
93S INVEST 190121 0000 12.8S 49.9E SHEM 15 0


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.0S 46.2E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211846Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF MADAGASCAR WITH ITS PRIMARY CONVECTION FLARING
AND DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS), AND THE MADAGASCAR COASTAL WATERS
HAVE VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO THE
WEST INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE HEADING SOUTH AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING. THE MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TC 10S, LOCATED TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC於01220630Z提升評級為Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0S 46.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 42.6E, APPROXIMATELY
160 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
BROAD AREA OF FORMATIVE BANDING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 222230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.8S 39.1E TO 24.5S 41.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5S 40.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 40.5E, APPROXIMATELY
11.7 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221604Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY COVERED BY DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND ROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND INTENSIFYING BEFORE TAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232230Z.
//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 取消TCFA,評級降低至Medium。

WTXS21 PGTW 232230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222221ZJAN19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTSX21 PGTW 222230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 40.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.8E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
TOLLARA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN A
CONVERGENT ZONE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 231916Z AMSU 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A FEW SMALL RAIN BANDS AROUND THE LLCC AND
VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. A
231918Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH
A LARGE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. 93S IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY, WHILE
TRANSITIONING FROM A HYBRID TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CIRCULATION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 232230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

升格熱帶低壓，編號07-20182019，有機會命名。

WTIO21 FMEE 240617
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 24/01/2019 A 0600UTC.
NUMERO: 001/7 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)
VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE)

AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 24/01/2019 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7 1000 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2 S / 42.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES UN EST) A 0600
UTC
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST.

GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE  S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 100 MN
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 24/01/2019 A 18 UTC:
25.9 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX = 35 KT,
A 24H POUR LE 25/01/2019 A 06 UTC:
28.5 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX = 30 KT,

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES :
NEANT=

霧峰追風者

MFR 12Z率先升格熱帶風暴，命名"Eketsang"，掠過馬達加斯加南部。

老農民版夜神月

WTIO30 FMEE 241303

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20182019

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (EKETSANG)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/24 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 43.2 E

(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

FORTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2019/01/25 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2019/01/25 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

36H: 2019/01/26 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2019/01/26 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2019/01/27 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2019/01/27 12 UTC: 40.8 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:

NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 07-20182019

SYSTEM HAS REMAINED WELL PRESENT, EVOLVING IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN.

THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0- ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS REACHING 40KT.

BY THIS ANALYSIS, THE SYSTEM REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM AND WAS NAMED EKETSANG BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

OF MADAGASCAR AT 12UTC. CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG IN THE NORTHERN

PART AND EXTENDS QUITE FAR DUE TO CONVERGENCE IN THE MONSOON FLOW

PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK PREDICTION, THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD

AGREEMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH FLOWS FURTHER SOUTH INDUCES A

WELL-DEFINED TRACK : EKETSANG EVACUATES QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST,

CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH.

THE INTENSITY OF EKETSANG IS ALMOST AT ITS MAXIMUM. DUE TO ITS

DISPLACEMENT, EKETSANG IS GRADUALLY PLACED UNDER THE EFFECT OF A

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION AND THEN

PROMOTE ITS PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING. FROM FRIDAY EVENING ONWARDS, THE

SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE FILLING UP AS

IT MOVES TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES.