jrchang5

MFR判定12Z升格中度熱帶風暴之報文。目前近中心最大風速40kts，幾已達強度巔峰，預計24小時後將先降為熱帶低壓，隨後將逐漸轉化為溫帶氣旋。

WTIO31 FMEE 241303
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/7/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (EKETSANG)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 43.2 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2019 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 25/01/2019 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
36H: 26/01/2019 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/01/2019 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
60H: 27/01/2019 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
72H: 27/01/2019 12 UTC: 40.8 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE AU SYSTEME
07-20182019 EST RESTEE BIEN PRESENTE, EVOLUANT EN CONFIGURATION DE
BANDE INCURVEE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 3.0- PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS
ATTEIGNANT LES 40KT. PAR CETTE ANALYSE, LE SYSTEME ATTEINT LE SEUIL DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET A ETE BAPTISE EKETSANG PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A 12UTC. LA CONVECTION RESTE TRES
MARQUEE DANS LA PARTIE NORD ET S'ETEND ASSEZ LOIN DUE A LA CONVERGENCE
DANS LE FLUX DE MOUSSON PRESENT DANS LA PARTIE CENTRALE DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE.
PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES MODELES
RESTENT EN BON ACCORD. LE TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU
SUD INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN DEFINIE : EKETSANG S'EVACUE RAPIDEMENT
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, CAPTURE DANS LA CIRCULATION DU TALWEG.
L'INTENSITE DE EKETSANG EST QUASIMENT A SON MAXIMUM. DU A SON
DEPLACEMENT, EKETSANG SE PLACE PROGRESSIVEMENT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT QUI VA LIMITER SON INTENSIFICATION PUIS
FAVORISER SON AFFAIBLISSMENT PROGRESSIF. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI EN SOIREE,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL AVANT DE SE
COMBLER EN CIRCULANT VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

jrchang5

MFR認定18Z近中心最大風速仍維持40kts；JTWC則於同一時間降評為Low。
MFR：

WTIO31 FMEE 241811
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/7/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (EKETSANG)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 43.6 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2019 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 25/01/2019 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 26/01/2019 06 UTC: 32.6 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/01/2019 18 UTC: 35.2 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 27/01/2019 06 UTC: 39.0 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

JTWC：

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.9S
40.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.8S 42.7E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOLLARA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241536Z SSMIS F-17 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL STRUCTURE AROUND THE LLCC. 93S IS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

jrchang5

MFR判定01250000Z已降為「後」熱帶低壓，預計36小時後轉化為溫帶氣旋。

WTIO30 FMEE 250004 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20182019
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-EKETSANG)
2.A POSITION 2019/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.2 S / 44.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/25 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/26 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/01/26 12 UTC: 33.8 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/01/27 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/01/27 12 UTC: 41.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
NNNN