霧峰追風者

  極強氣旋風暴  
編號：BOB 02 ( 01 B )
名稱：Fani

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 04 月 24 日 11 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 04 月 27 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 04 月 27 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 05 月 04 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：印度 奧里薩邦

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：115 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：135 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：939 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
91B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-2.1N-91.5E


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

IO, 91, 2019042312,   , BEST,   0, 0.1N,  90.3E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042318,   , BEST,   0, 0.1N,  89.8E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042400,   , BEST,   0, 0.2N,  89.5E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

JTWC新增91B編擾前的定強定位
並更改24/00Z,91B形成時的初始定位

jrchang5

JTWC 25/10Z評級Medium。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.4N
90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250716Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP,
FLARING CONVECTION AND BANDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW AND
DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) SUPPORT FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

IMD 以編號BOB 02。
rsmc.pdf (242.49 KB, 下載次數: 2)

2019-4-25 21:39 上傳

點擊文件名下載附件

老農民版夜神月

SSD25/1530Z開始對91P做出首報分析,值得一提的是,SSD1430Z緯度定位定於1.2N,與JTWC25/12Z定位的有較大的落差

TXIO29 KNES 251530
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91B)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 1.2N

D. 90.7E

E. THREE/MET-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

91B INVEST 190425 1200 2.8N 90.2E IO 25 1005

jrchang5

IMD 26/03Z開始正式發報，首報定強為一低壓。預測27日有機會增強為氣旋風暴。

jrchang5

JTWC於26/09Z發布TCFA。

WTIO21 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 2.7N 89.5E TO 7.7N 86.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
260830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.0N
89.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.8N 90.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 610
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 260323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT,
FRAGMENTED BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A BROAD CENTER.
HOWEVER, A 260324Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH
QUADRANT AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
91B BORDERING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C) SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270900Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z 率先升格熱帶。