2. The southwestern portion of the aforementioned trough is also
producing a large are of disturbed weather nearly 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the
development of this system and it could become a tropical depression
while it moves slowly northward during the next few days. after that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. Another area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for the development of this system and it
will likely become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 141830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132051Z AUG 20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 116.4W TO 18.3N 117.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 116.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.5N 116.5W, APPROXIMATELY 488 NM SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
141717Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. A 141602Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE SW-NE
ORIENTED, HIGHLY ELONGATED LLC WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS
EMBEDDED IN 20 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. 94E IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151830Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PHNC) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.9W.//
NNNN
2. Concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system has
slowly become better organized since yesterday and environmental
conditions appear favorable for further development today and
tomorrow. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system
moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center.
Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets
the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.
The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected
to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These cooler waters
combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in
the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36
to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that. The global models
show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days.
The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only
recently become well defined, but my best guess is
north-northwestward at 10 kt. A strong mid-level ridge situated
over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next
couple of days. After that time, when the system is likely a
shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is
is steered by the low-level flow. The track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a
circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding
features. Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below
tropical storm strength. Some slight strengthening could occur
today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters. However,
in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause
the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days. The official
intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model
prediction.
Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression
is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over
the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward
to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. Later in the forecast period, the weakening
system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as
it moves in the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is a
little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the
middle of the track guidance suite.
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over
the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available
Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity
of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB
and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the
2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C
SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by
Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing
Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection
should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a
remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus aids.
Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving
northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and
a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the
cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south
of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The
official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance
and is little changed from the previous one.
Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Deep convection continues to decrease near Fausto, with only a small
area remaining near and south of the center. Satellite estimates
are dropping and support making Fausto a 30-kt tropical depression
on this advisory, which also matches the 25-30 kt ASCAT data from
earlier. The cyclone is rapidly moving over cold water, and should
cease producing deep convection overnight. Thus further weakening
is likely, and remnant low status is expected on Monday, with a slow
decay over cold waters thereafter as shown in the global models.
Fausto is moving northwestward at around 15 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The storm should turn
westward tomorrow and south-of-west on Tuesday due to the
orientation of the lower- to middle-level ridge. The official
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is not far
from the eastern Pacific model consensus aid, TVCE.
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