老農民版夜神月

JTWC在今年的南半球風季,少見的對MFR轄區以外的系統升格反應速度較慢
不過於18Z,SSD,CPHC均已對96P分析出T3.0,僅JTWC仍維持2.0

很有可能明天00Z報或06Z報96P便將會獲得JTWC的升格

TXPS24 KNES 291825
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96P)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 15.7S

D. 175.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.0. THE MET=2.5. THE PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SANDUSKY

TXPS42 PHFO 291737

TCSSP2



SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

1651 UTC FRI JAN 29 2021



A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F (96P)



B. 29/1700Z



C. 15.0S



D. 176.3E



E. HIMAWARI-8



F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS



G. IR/EIR



H. REMARKS...CURVED BAND WRAPS 0.7 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL...

YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES AND MET IS 2.5. FT BASED ON DT.



I. ADDL POSITIONS

NONE.





$$



ALMANZA

TPPS10 PGTW 291833

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96P (E OF VANUATU)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 15.61S

D. 175.45E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN

dom

JTWC升格15P

15P.INVEST.35kts.996mb.16.1S.176.5E

TXPS24 KNES 300025
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96P)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 16.0S

D. 176.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 9/10
BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 2.5 AND PT IS
EQUAL TO 3.0 AFTER A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24H. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

老農民版夜神月

JTWC首報上望55節，15P約於24H後將逐漸通過斐濟群島，並於同時達到巔峰

老農民版夜神月

FMS升格澳式C2,中心正將開始逐漸的通過斐濟群島

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 301442 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 984HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
178.0E AT 301330 UTC. POSITION FAIR ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TC ANA MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH
PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC. TC ANA LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A NARROW BAND OF A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. GOOD OUTFLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. TC
ANA IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BEFORE SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 1.1 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.1S 178.4E AT 310130UTC

AND NEAR 19.2S 178.6E AT 311330UTC.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 310130 UTC 18.1S 178.4E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 311330 UTC 19.2S 178.6E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010130 UTC 20.4S 178.9E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011330 UTC 21.6S 179.8E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 302000 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

發展已超乎預期,JTWC18Z定強60KT,並於21Z報中首次上望C1(65KT)

dom

JTWC升格C1
15P.ANA.21013100.65kts.974mb.18.2S.178.6E.

dom

FMS進一步將其升格為澳式C3，相信當前已達到巔峰，開始步入減弱階段

FKPS01 NFFN 311301
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210131/1200Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: ANA
ADVISORY NR: 2021/8
OBS PSN: 31/1200Z S1930 E17824
CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: S 07KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 31/1800Z S2012 E17830
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 01/0000Z S2048 E17848
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 01/0600Z S2130 E17906
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/1200Z S2200 E17942
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20210131/1900Z

老農民版夜神月

已通過斐濟,JTWC判定於00Z短暫到達顛峰(65KT)後隨即開始減弱,18Z已降至55KT
FMS18Z則維持澳式C3

SH, 15, 2021013100, , BEST, 0, 181S, 1782E, 65, 976, TY,
SH, 15, 2021013106, , BEST, 0, 188S, 1783E, 60, 979, TS,
SH, 15, 2021013112, , BEST, 0, 196S, 1786E, 55, 981, TS,
SH, 15, 2021013118, , BEST, 0, 205S, 1790E, 55, 981, TS,

HURRICANE WARNING 041 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 311957 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7 SOUTH
179.2 EAST AT 311800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.7S 179.2E at 311800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 179.8E AT 010600 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 178.9W AT 011800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038.