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frintezza|2012-4-24 14:23
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ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZAPR2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.0N 137.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232323Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD TURNING LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 240046Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH 05-10 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED
UNDER THE CONVERGENT CONVECTIVE AREA TO THE NORTH, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM POLEWARD OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE LLCC JUST WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH BOTH
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DIVERGENCE OCCURRING WEST OF THE LLCC. TO
THE EAST, OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH CONNECTS INTO WELL DEVELOPED TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS DEEP INTO
THE TROPICS BETWEEN 170-180 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
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LOW了, 風切,水溫,輻散等條件都很好, 只是緯度很低 |
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