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SHYUDOL|2012-4-29 08:05
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本帖最後由 SHYUDOL 於 2012-4-29 08:11 編輯
這是...怎說呢就是比較沒那麼細的風場(細的那個沒掃到97W的位置拍謝)
總覺得這LLCC的轉向.....自己看吧
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(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 127.8E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INTENSE CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. A 281913Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDING ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANT; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS POORLY ORGANIZED. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, INCLUDING A 281541Z OSCAT PASS, REVEALS A SHARP SURFACE WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SIMILARLY, THE 282100Z 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS A WAVE-LIKE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THIS AREA IS UNDER EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING AMPLE EXHAUST, AIDING THE INTENSE CONVECTION. THE 282300Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM DAVAO, PHILIPPINES(菲律賓) REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT FOUR KNOTS, AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. THE CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE; HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS WAVE TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.(垂直風切約為15-20KNOTS) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.(估計氣壓為1008mb) THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.(24小時內發展率低)
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