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01B.Viyaru 登陸孟加拉 助長梅雨?*

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2013-5-10 12:46 | 顯示全部樓層

默默移到蘇門答臘島西北方海域未來路徑還有往東調整機會
92B是否順利加強跨赤道氣流並引入北半球及建立完整的西南風場是未來觀察重點



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我更關注未來是否嚴重影響緬甸。 一天内從 LOW 到 01B,雙流出通道彌補了風切的問題。IMD 認為是 well-marked low pressure area。  詳情 回復 發表於 2013-5-10 16:05

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2013-5-10 16:05 | 顯示全部樓層
ben811018 發表於 2013-5-10 12:46
默默移到蘇門答臘島西北方海域未來路徑還有往東調整機會
92B是否順利加強跨赤道氣流並引入北半球及建立完 ...

我更關注未來是否嚴重影響緬甸。

一天内從 LOW 到 01B,雙流出通道彌補了風切的問題。IMD 認為是 well-marked low pressure area。

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2013-5-10 17:26 | 顯示全部樓層
完了,如果真的預測以二級登陸緬甸肯定要死幾百人。

  1. WTIO31 PGTW 100900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
  4. REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151Z MAY 13//
  5. AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
  6. RMKS/
  7. 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
  8.    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
  9.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  10.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  11.     ---
  12.    WARNING POSITION:
  13.    100600Z --- NEAR 4.8N 93.6E
  14.      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
  15.      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
  16.      POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  17.    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  18.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
  19.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  20.    REPEAT POSIT: 4.8N 93.6E
  21.     ---
  22.    FORECASTS:
  23.    12 HRS, VALID AT:
  24.    101800Z --- 6.2N 92.4E
  25.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
  26.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  27.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  28.                             030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  29.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  30.                             035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  31.    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
  32.     ---
  33.    24 HRS, VALID AT:
  34.    110600Z --- 7.1N 91.1E
  35.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
  36.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  37.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  38.                             055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  39.                             055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  40.                             065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  41.    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
  42.     ---
  43.    36 HRS, VALID AT:
  44.    111800Z --- 8.3N 89.7E
  45.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
  46.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  47.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  48.                             030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  49.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  50.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  51.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  52.                             080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  53.                             075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  54.                             085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  55.    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
  56.     ---
  57.    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  58.    48 HRS, VALID AT:
  59.    120600Z --- 9.7N 88.9E
  60.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
  61.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  62.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  63.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  64.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  65.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  66.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  67.                             040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  68.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  69.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  70.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  71.                             100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  72.                             095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  73.                             100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  74.    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
  75.     ---
  76.    72 HRS, VALID AT:
  77.    130600Z --- 12.8N 88.4E
  78.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
  79.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  80.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  81.                             030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  82.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  83.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  84.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  85.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  86.                             050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  87.                             050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  88.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  89.                             115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  90.                             110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  91.                             110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  92.    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
  93.     ---
  94.    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
  95.     ---
  96.    96 HRS, VALID AT:
  97.    140600Z --- 17.4N 90.5E
  98.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
  99.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  100.    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
  101.     ---
  102.    120 HRS, VALID AT:
  103.    150600Z --- 22.0N 94.6E
  104.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
  105.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  106.    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
  107.     ---
  108. REMARKS:
  109. 100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.1N 93.3E.
  110. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF
  111. CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
  112. THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
  113. DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
  114. WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
  115. CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 100715Z AMSU-B IMAGE,
  116. WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED ON THE
  117. EASTERN TIP OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH
  118. QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT
  119. IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER,
  120. A 100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT
  121. WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35
  122. KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE OCEANSAT IMAGE
  123. SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE LLCC IS
  124. LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND
  125. SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO
  126. TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE
  127. STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
  128. THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN
  129. POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE
  130. SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE
  131. NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO
  132. MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN
  133. BAY OF BENGAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
  134. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
  135. CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B
  136. IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO
  137. DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
  138. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
  139. 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
  140. 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
  141. WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100151Z MAY 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
  142. ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 100200).//
  143. NNNN
複製代碼

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這種路徑加這種強度再加上那裡一遇颱風...天佑緬甸囉  發表於 2013-5-10 18:36
雲系覆蓋廣+緬甸地勢低 = gg  發表於 2013-5-10 18:08

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-5-10 20:44 | 顯示全部樓層

IMD:BOB 1

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2013-5-10 21:12 編輯

繼JTWC升格01B後  IMD剛剛升格為低壓BOB 1囉

Time of issue: 1715 hours IST Dated: 10-05-2013

Bulletin No.: BOB 01/2013/01

Sub: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal.

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over
southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 10th May 2013 near
latitude 05.00N and longitude 92.00E, about 450 km south-southwest of Car Nicobar, 1250 km
east-southeast of Trincomalee , 1550 km southeast of Chennai and 1900 km south of
Chittagong. The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and
subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would move initially northwestwards during next 48 hrs.
and recurve thereafter northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very
heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph would prevail along and off Nicobar
Islands during next 48 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Nicobar
Islands during this period.

Fishermen of Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48
hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 10th May, 2013.

點評

好的 我改一下哦~  發表於 2013-5-10 21:07
這升格不一樣,只是 25 節的低壓。是 BOB 01。  發表於 2013-5-10 20:54
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colinwoo|2013-5-10 20:45 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
大家無需擔心!經過2008年的風災後,緬甸政府和人民的防災意識已經有所提高,這次風暴造成的傷亡應該不會像上次那麼慘重,而且可以見證到它的威力

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也還是可能會死幾百人,看看 Giri 就知道了,而且這次很大。 BOB 01 vs Megi  詳情 回復 發表於 2013-5-10 20:55
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2013-5-10 20:55 | 顯示全部樓層
colinwoo 發表於 2013-5-10 20:45
大家無需擔心!經過2008年的風災後,緬甸政府和人民的防災意識已經有所提高,這次風暴造成的傷亡應該不會像 ...

也還是可能會死幾百人,看看 Giri 就知道了,而且這次很大。



BOB 01 vs Megi

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這樣可以再給緬甸一個教訓,所以亦是好事。從前幾乎每次中國大陸和台灣受到風暴吹襲後都會死傷枕籍,現在隨着科技進步和經濟發展,已經跟以前有很大分別了。無經過教訓,國家怎會有進步呢?  詳情 回復 發表於 2013-5-11 09:35
大了兩倍的樣子  發表於 2013-5-10 22:29
差好多 整體範圍比梅姬大好多  發表於 2013-5-10 21:09
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2013-5-10 23:48 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 已升格 BOB 01 為深低壓,最大風速 30 節、最低氣壓 1000 百帕,預測 13 日 12Z 增強為特強氣旋風暴。

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 5 IMD的路徑我第一次看到這種的~

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colinwoo|2013-5-11 09:35 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
Meow 發表於 2013-5-10 20:55
也還是可能會死幾百人,看看 Giri 就知道了,而且這次很大。



這樣可以再給緬甸一個教訓,所以亦是好事。從前幾乎每次中國大陸和台灣受到風暴吹襲後都會死傷枕籍,現在隨着科技進步和經濟發展,已經跟以前有很大分別了。無經過教訓,國家怎會有進步呢?
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