justin8821

麻友飯

老J：LOW


/1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE. THE MSI ALSO INDICATES A GOOD MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE, BUT A 060132Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION OR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 060425Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY ELONGATED WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE GOOD MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL STRUCTURE, BUT POOR LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

阿隆

氣象局前預報主任在7/4(四)氣象時間講到未來天氣字卡中明示:下週四~五要留意熱帶系統可能靠近臺灣(且連講2天喔!)
我在7/3(三)在91W點評中提及:留意下週高壓北調南方擾動就有機會燃起風迷熱情.....
大膽假設小心求證!這是我此時面對這隻(包含接續每一隻)的態度,提供給大家參考(我個人想法)。
NOAA最新已標出T1.0(具參考數值)且在西南有另一低壓系統發展,未來是合併或各獨立是短期焦點;下週路徑我建議就鎖定CWB前預報主任的每晚說明+字卡。彭博士於上月早提及今年密集影響臺灣的颱風應落在七月中旬後,所以大愛每晚19:30我也會高度關注鎖定。
最新底層仍顯破碎(看高層會騙人)所以還是LOW,沒錯!但現處廣大洋面若逐步增強就足以改變前方不利乾區,還有近日副高稍轉弱也利於續發展。

自2009莫拉克後已許久未見自東方海面直趨近的系統了,歡迎風迷們踴越發文喔~若言之有物或圖文並茂我都會+水氣獎勵。還有,還是要感謝在首樓+mm的會員們!

fe998329

7/6 14:00

低氣壓１００６百帕，在北緯２０度，東經１５５度，即在關島東北方海面，向西移動，時速２０公里。

氣壓還是沒變 本身有向西移動




中央氣象局的預測 預計下周六會接近台灣南部

不過還是會有變數

J18

三、低氣壓１００６百帕，在北緯２０度，東經１５５度
，即在關島東北方海面，向西移動，時速２０公里。

氣象局提早日本發布他的消息
表示非常的關注!

powerng

而廣州氣象台指出12號有熱帶氣旋影響廣東，難道92w會影響台灣及廣東?

h122366354

蘇力酋長，你非來不可嗎?????

ben811018

副高強大~92W很快速的往西移動~ 平均時速可到25公里
主要數值預報對於92發展的程度也不是很看好