王元哲

疑似出現風眼?

ben811018

這張是GFS+120的預測風速~ 近中心是70kt

92的水汽供應一直很有問題
未來強度還真撲朔迷離阿...

另外~在92西北方有高空冷心低壓
整個高層流出的狀況還滿不錯的~幅散也在加強
或許明天會比較"振作"一些

正宜27

krichard2011

GFS預測未來 +96 Hrs開始
將出現爆發增強 +144 甚至可能將以70kts 以上強度
以西北颱的姿態侵襲台灣

另外TWC也TCFA了

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070802Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS CONSOLIDATING WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 071128Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES THAT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD, THE LLCC IS CONSOLIDATING. THE SCATTEROMETRY PASS ALSO REVEALS STRONGER EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH DYNAMICAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC MODEL FORECAST FIELDS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN BOTH ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

lindseykuo

雖然有些數值預報認為92W的強度可能較弱,我倒認為中度甚至到強烈颱風都有可能,

重點是它的範圍在進入東經140度以西時,應會明顯的擴大,不見得是暴風半徑本身,

而是它所挾帶的雲系可能也是個不小的威脅,

這一兩天太平洋高壓其實有略為減弱,所以位於高壓邊緣的台灣午後雷雨也明顯許多,

從92W西北方冷低的走向及西太平洋低層風場圖都可以看得出來,

如果太平洋高壓維持這種強度,92W從台灣東方海域較遠處轉成西北至偏北的機率較高,

這樣的話92W對台影響將較小,但有些預報認為明後天太平洋高壓將開始增強,

如果屬實,那麼92W的路徑就端看太平洋高壓的強弱變化,不過基本上颱風警報是避免不了

從穿越巴士海峽至西北颱都有機會,不過時間還久,就先慢慢觀察吧

藍色公路

看反水:lol92W北方有乾空氣跟很京 ..92w有開始在轉動...

logdog

看了一看一些大大的解說 整理結論如下

1.此系統發展迅速 但受制於附近冷渦影響
   對流似乎有一些被壓抑 不過就發展態勢來看
   相當理想 第七號颱風勢在必得

2.系統仍然離東亞陸地較遠
   且主要水氣支援 季風雲團
   跨赤道氣流仍在135E以西
   系統走到這的時候環流才會有
   比較明顯的擴大很增強
   且到達這個位置
   系統南北方都有反氣旋提供系統
   (南方是反氣旋?)
   比現在更優異的輻散
   到時候系統可能會有RI(快速加強)的現象
   C3以上指日可待

3.北方高壓單體未來會有一段加強期
   看許多機構跟大大的分析大致呈現這種態勢
   不過會有一些零星的短波槽打擊副高
   雖然看起來都是一些雜魚級的
   順手就會被副高解決掉
   但具體而言副高會呈現什麼態勢
   還是要看下去才知道

4. EC大神開示
   台灣要小心這個傢伙 XDDDD

ben811018

最新的JMA RSMC預測路徑
路徑跟前幾報變化不大