簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2013-9-16 06:37
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 524 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC IS EVIDENT IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS, INDICATING WEAK CYCLONIC WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS FAIRLY ELONGATED AND HAS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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