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krichard2011|2013-9-16 12:37
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-9-16 12:41 編輯
TCFA!
這圖畫圓圈的意思是?中心近似滯留?
不是通常都是長方形 這種圓形還滿少見的
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160044Z METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER WITH EXPOSED, SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTINCT LLCC AS TS 16W TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO JAPAN. A 160047Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEINED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS THEN GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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