1409 雷馬遜 1973年以來華南最強颱，登陸地災情慘重

Typhoon · 2014-7-10 08:23

92W

powerng · 2014-7-10 10:10

李富城的臉書表示92w會在下周未接近台灣東南部近海。

tzfa1979 · 2014-7-10 10:17

应该是中间的那个扰动可能成。

t02436 · 2014-7-10 10:18

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
154.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS
ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL
OUTFLOW - ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS AREA IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

核心區持續有對流爆出

GFS近四報差異比較
變數仍大

krichard2011 · 2014-7-10 10:19

JTWC 升評 Medium
這隻螺旋性的確相當好 @@
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
154.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS
ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL
OUTFLOW - ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS AREA IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.