martin191919

REMAINS MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 152.4E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 100342Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO 25 KNOT
WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS
DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

martin191919

TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100608Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS
DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT CONVECTION, IMPROVING ORGANZIATION AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Wayne

其實這系統能夠有本事升格到Medium (當然現在TCFA了)

基本上就是確示了此地適合發展，客觀條件上也確實如此

再加上92W比較偏中小環流系統，發展速度應該會比較快

最起碼會比之前的浣熊快一點

個人的看法，+168以前的路徑應當是不會有什麼大意外

這段時間主要還是觀察準雷馬遜能發展到什麼程度

還有系統大小會不會有變化，在之後的路徑到時候再看就好了

tzfa1979

卫星云图显示已经有一点小规模了。

sh991016

氣象局目前預測往菲律賓撞去，跟EC今日預測的路徑類似

J18

GFS對於熱帶氣旋的預測是各機構中最大膽的
強度預測145kts
路徑從東北近海掃過
若真的這樣走 準雷馬遜在本論壇討論頁數可能超過50頁!

archondarz

先觀望摟

還太遠

高壓變化怎麼樣都還很難講

路徑變數一定很大

pmy455091

sh991016 發表於 2014-7-10 16:50
氣象局目前預測往菲律賓撞去，跟EC今日預測的路徑類似

不對吧！目前還很遠呢！總會變的