A. 07E (GENEVIEVE)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 12.7N
D. 176.1W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.0 BASED ON 1.1 CURVED BANDING. MET IS 3.5 BASED
ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER 24 HOURS AND THE PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014
GENEVIEVE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT APPEARING NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA ALSO DEPICT WELL ORGANIZED
BANDING ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 06/1200Z
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATE DECREASED TO ONLY 6 KT...
WHILE CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASED TO 4.0 FROM
PHFO/SAB...AND 3.5 FROM JTWC. UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
HOVERING NEAR 4.3/72 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GENEVIEVE
WILL BE DESIGNATED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...290/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTH FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS
GENEVIEVE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INDICATED AFTER 72
HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOTION
THEREAFTER...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH GENEVIEVE NOW A HURRICANE...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS WARM SSTS AROUND 29C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS CYCLE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AT ALL TIME PERIODS THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND
NOW PEAKS OUT AT 95 KT FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT BELOW THE IVCN CONSENSUS.
ON DAYS 4 AND 5...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW.
GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
