17P.Pam 南太平洋論風速之新風王幾乎癱瘓萬那杜全國

Meow · 2015-3-7 17:59

斐濟發佈路徑圖和報文了，不過目前只預測三天後達到二級熱帶氣旋。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 07/0803 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S
169.6E AT 070600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST AROUND 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP YEILDS DT=1.5,
PAT=1.5, MET=1.5. THUS YEILDING 1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 7.8S 170.0E MOV ENE AT 02KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 8.0S 170.6E MOV ESE AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 9.0S 171.0E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 10.1S 170.7E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 071400 UTC.

Meow · 2015-3-8 04:03

12Z 最新預報：GFS 的地表氣壓繼續扯 859 百帕，不過 MSLP 也有 938 百帕，持續風速預測到 131 節。ECMWF 的預測倒是調弱了，MSLP 只見 973 百帕，和某預測差距超過一百百帕。

zjk369 · 2015-3-8 09:47

t02436 · 2015-3-8 16:24

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-3-8 16:25 編輯

FMS升格熱帶低壓
24小時內命名Pam

** WTPS11 NFFN 080600 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 08/0754 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 169.7E AT
080600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP
YEILDS DT=2.0, PAT AND MET AGREE. THUS YEILDING 2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 8.9S 169.9E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 9.5S 169.6E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 10.0S 169.3E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 10.6S 169.4E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 081400 UTC.

01Z預測圖

GFS 18Z

00Z

Meow · 2015-3-9 09:51

應該今天就會看到 17P 也會命名了。

WTPS21 PGTW 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6S 168.9E TO 12.9S 171.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 082100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 169.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S
169.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 082017Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. A 081857Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WELL NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092300Z.//
NNNN