17P.Pam 南太平洋論風速之新風王幾乎癱瘓萬那杜全國

krichard2011 · 2015-3-10 08:01

底層風眼大致已經有開始建立起來的跡象了
GFS也再度發巔預測到最低氣壓低於870hPa
一路上SST與OHC基本上都高得嚇人
附近也幾乎沒有乾空氣干擾
短期內快速增強的機率很高

zjk369 · 2015-3-10 08:35

GFS再度看好強度成為21世紀最強颱風史上第二個

ben811018 · 2015-3-10 10:56

存圖記錄一下~

zjk369 · 2015-3-10 13:34

10日預報圖

t02436 · 2015-3-10 14:15

JTWC 00Z 升C1
上望130Kts

FMS升澳式C2
36小時內升三級強烈熱帶氣旋

** WTPS01 NFFN 100000 ***
HURRICANE WARNING 013  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 10/0101 UTC 2015
UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7
SOUTH 170.4 EAST AT 100000 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 9.7S 170.4E AT 100000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
65 KNOTS BY 101800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 10.1S 170.8E AT 101200 UTC
            AND NEAR 10.7S 171.2E AT 110000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 011.

** WTPS11 NFFN 100000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/0145 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 170.4E AT
100000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 030 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND
                        WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND
                        WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND
                        WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING AROUND SUPPOSE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT WITH CLOUD
TOPS COOLING AND INCREASING IN RADIAL EXTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREES. THUS,
YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 10.1S 170.8E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 10.7S 171.2E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 11.6S 171.6E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 13.0S 171.8E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 100800 UTC.