簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-3-10 13:48
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-3-10 13:50 編輯
補Low報文及雲圖
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N 171.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH
LOOSEN FORMATIVE BANDS BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 082014Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
升評Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6N
168.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH WIDESPREAD FLARING CONVECTION. A
100311Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS CONFIRMED BY A 092242Z
ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS AIDING CONVECTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE
SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRITERIA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 54.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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