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krichard2011|2015-3-11 13:01
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顯示全部樓層
JTWC 也發布TCFA
不過組之上仍有待加強
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N
168.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 171.4E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH
OF MAJURO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 110210Z N-19 AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. OBSERVATIONS FROM MAJURO SHOW A CLEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS OVERALL
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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