0908morakot

  極強氣旋風暴  
編號：ARB 04 ( 04 A )
名稱：Chapala


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 10 月 25 日 11 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 10 月 29 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 11 月 04 日 16 時
登陸地點　　：葉門 舍卜沃省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：115 kt ( ESCS )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：135 kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：942 百帕

  過去路徑圖  




  討論帖圖片  
94A.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.9N.68.7E



以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

甜心

:o位在阿拉伯半島以東.北印度海域的這隻秋末擾動是乎很冷門沒甚麼人在討論它，不過傢伙條件很不錯耶如果發展順利說不定後期會有令人驚豔的成績喔。

暫時緩慢東移後期動向有待觀察。

t02436

補充昨天晚上Low評級

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N 64.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 250445Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN
EXPOSED, POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC. A 250539Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT
AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS OFFSET BY
STRONG EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND
BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC WITH A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS DECREASES POLEWARD OF 10N. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

剛剛再調升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 64.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 66.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1080 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 260519Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD WITH
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

目前數值看好發展

甜心

:o雖然因為環境有利於它而開始快速發展起來了對它而言是個好現象，但路徑是乎有往西調整這對後期可能受到它侵襲的阿拉伯半島的居民們卻是個壞消息。

它過去一天的發展還算穩定強度未來要達到熱帶風暴等級應該不成問題。

Meow

形態有所改善，對流較以往緊密。JTWC應該很快就會發佈TCFA，IMD也可能在今天升格低壓。

GFS預測以較弱強度進入亞丁灣。本身進入亞丁灣的風暴就很少，這樣真正深入的，歷史上只有一次。

Meow

發佈TCFA的時候，開「眼」了。:funk:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 65.3E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 64.5E, APPROXIMATELY 583 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA
ISLAND, YEMEN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD BIAS, LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS
IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND THEN WESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VWS
AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

IMD也認為低壓ARB 04形成。

ARABIAN SEA

YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY THE 28TH OCTOBER 2015 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 11.50 N AND LONGITUDE 65.00 E, ABOUT 1200 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1320 KM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316), OMAN. IT WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT WOULD THEN MOVE WESTWARDS TOWARDS YAMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1006 HPA. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA LIE BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 16.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 62.0 DEGREE EAST TO 70.0 DEGREE EAST.

REMARKS: THE CONVECTION INCREASED IN PAST 12 HOURS WITH INCREASE IN ORGANISATION. THE WINDS ARE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 300C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2 AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER GULF OF ADEN AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 10-20 KNOTS (MODERATE) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS LESS AND 5-10 KNOTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY AND CONVERGENCE HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS. THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 130N. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM IN SUBSEQUENT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT INITIAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UPTO 1200 UTC OF 29 OCT. AND THEN WESTWARD/WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST ACROSS GULF OF ADEN. THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THEIR 10 DAYS FORECAST SUGGEST THE SYSTEM TO REACH NORTH YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST BY 3RD NOVEMBER 2015.

蜜露

TCFA就有這樣的型態...

GFS幾天後遇測. 阿曼 葉門要小心了..

Meow

升格深低壓（30kt、1003hPa），預測12小時後命名、上望強烈氣旋風暴上限。最近的底層顯示有接近雲捲風眼的結構。