t02436

MFR編號擾動區3號，有機會命名。

ZCZC 450
WTIO30 FMEE 271309 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20162017
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  3
2.A POSITION 2017/01/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 73.8 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL
EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0  / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/01/28 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2017/01/28 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2017/01/29 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2017/01/29 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2017/01/30 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISTURBANCE
72H: 2017/01/30 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
NNNN

t02436

MFR 18Z升熱帶低壓，但不在看好站上MTS。

ZCZC 148
WTIO30 FMEE 280031 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  3
2.A POSITION 2017/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 73.8 E
(TEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL
EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE:  SE:  SW: 90 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/01/28 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2017/01/29 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2017/01/29 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2017/01/30 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
NNNN

s6815711

評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION THAT HAS
STARTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 280414 ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LLCC
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL DUE TO PERSISTENT 25 TO 30 KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.