0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：13 F ( 90 P )
擾動編號日期：2017 年 02 月 15 日 12 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 02 月 19 日 09 時
90P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.4S.148.6W

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13F CENTRE [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 149.1W
AT 142100UTC.
TD13F SLOW MOVING. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. TD13F LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

kibishi0515

一對流區域(追蹤編號90P)佇留於接近西經148.6度、南緯13.4度，即在波拉波拉島東北方481.5公里之海面上。

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4S 148.6W, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHEAST OF BORA BORA.

多色階動態衛星雲圖及祖魯時間15日4時23分之SSMIS 91GHz微波掃描顯示，對流雲系自該系統東北側起零散分佈於其低層環流中心外緣；祖魯時間14日18時34分之METOP-B ASCAT風場掃描顯示一狹長低層環流中心伴隨30節的強風呈現於此系統東側，但該強風似非由系統環流所產生。

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150423Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER EDGE, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE, OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141834Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE, BUT THE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.

擾動當前位於一複雜環境之中，系統週邊之海面溫度偏暖(約為28℃)，垂直風切較低(5至10節)，赤道向流出狀況尚可；但系統相當鄰近一位於其南側之高空槽，將成為發展阻礙之一。

THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MIXED ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (AROUND 28 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5- 10 KNOTS), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.

全球模式認為此系統將於接下來數天內快速發展，基本而言，預報中認為氣壓梯度將增加此系統之東側外圍風力，並以副熱帶系統之形式持續向東南方行進。預報之最大持續風速為10至15節、最低氣壓為1010百帕。

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PRIMARILY GRADIENT INDUCED AND CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.

此系統於未來24小時內發展為一顯著熱帶氣旋之可能性評級為低。

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

kibishi0515

一對流區域(追蹤編號90P)，初始位置*位於接近西經148.6度、南緯13.4度；當前位於接近西經148.5度、南緯16.3度，即在法屬玻里尼西亞大溪地巴比提東北東方194.5公里之海面上。

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 148.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 148.5W, APPROXIMATELY 105NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, FRENCH POLYNESIA.

多色階動態衛星雲圖顯示其低層環流中心處於外露狀態，並有深對流雲系殘餘存在於其北側外圍。系統當前位於一高層槽之邊緣地帶，強烈高空分流令系統對流得以持續。
祖魯時間16日2時14分之SSMIS 37GHz掃描合成顯示有整合失敗之雲系存在於系統北半部上空；系統之南半部未有進行任何中心建構或雲系整合的跡象。

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE FUELING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 160214Z SSMIS 37GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WITH NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED CENTER OR ANY BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

海面觀測測得1002至1003百帕之最低氣壓值，但該區域之風力相當柔和；SSMIS風場掃描顯示其北側之對流雲帶具有更強的風力。

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AREA INDICATE SLP VALUES NEAR 1002 TO 1003MB BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT DID SHOW STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH.

全球模式預報，隨著此系統持續隨高層槽導引向南移動，在未來2至3日內此系統將完全轉化為副熱帶系統。預報之最大持續風速為15至20節、最低氣壓為接近1002百帕。

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TRANSITIONS TO A FULLY SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.

此系統於未來24小時內發展為一顯著熱帶氣旋之可能性評級維持低。

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

*Previously Location在JTWC的用語中所指的是JTWC第一次對系統發報時系統所在的位置，故譯為初始位置。

kibishi0515

對流區域(追蹤編號90P)初始位置位於接近西經148.5度、南緯16.3度，當前位於接近西經145.7度、南緯19.9度，即在巴比提東南東方416.7公里之海面上。

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 148.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 145.7W, APPROXIMATELY 225NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, FRENCH POLYNESIA.

多色階動態衛星雲圖顯示系統之東北象限有一顯著低層環流中心，該低層環流中心部分外露，並伴隨有雜亂深層對流雲系。祖魯時間17日3時55分之SSMIS 9GHz掃描顯示，有破碎雲帶正於低層環流中心東半側上空進行整合。

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EAST AND NORTH QUADRANTS. A 170355Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

系統當前正處於一高層槽之前緣，強烈高空分流令對流得以持續；同時系統正面臨強烈偏弱(20至40節)之垂直風切影響。

THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE FUELING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-40 KNOTS).

全球模式預報，隨著此系統持續隨高層槽導引向南移動，在未來1至2日內此系統將完全轉化為副熱帶系統。預報之最大持續風速為20至25節、最低氣壓為接近1002百帕。

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TRANSITIONS TO A FULLY SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.

此系統於未來24小時內發展為一顯著熱帶氣旋之可能性評級維持低。

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

kibishi0515

衛星雲圖分析公報。這個我自己其實有幾項看不太懂XD
大概知道A-G在講什麼，但F、H、I不清楚
A是系統等級和編號，以及相對方位、B是時間、C是緯度、D是經度
E是衛星和頻道、F是德法(但除了第一項是最終數值以外其他都不清楚)
G是分析所使用的衛星雲圖的種類

TPPS11 PGTW 170946
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (SE OF TAHITI)
B. 17/0900Z
C. 21.00S
D. 144.86W
E. FIVE/GOES15
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0505Z 20.50S 145.08W SSMS

CHAPPOTIN

kibishi0515

衛星雲圖分析公報

TPPS11 PGTW 171242
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (SE OF TAHITI)
B. 17/1200Z
C. 21.40S
D. 145.03W
E. FIVE/GOES15
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

CHAPPOTIN

s6815711

對流爆發中
看習慣逆時針旋轉的颱風後再看南半球會很不習慣XD

t02436

評級提升到Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 145.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 145.0W, APPROXIMATELY
315NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, FRENCH POLYNESIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 171214Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG
DIFFLUENCE FUELING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TRANSITIONS TO A FULLY
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.