W環

JTWC: Remains Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145
NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110034Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). AS THE LLCC MOVED WESTWARD FROM UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW, AND
CONDUCIVE (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN 110036Z METOP-A 25KM
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ANALYZED, ALBEIT, THE SUBSIDED DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

jwpk9899

過去一段時間對流一直無法鞏固 發展不順利
JTWC直接取消評級
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 141.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Meow

WTPN21 PGTW 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 134.5E TO 11.1N 126.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CORE CONVECTION. A 13/0700Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHERLY, INDICATIVE OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE CIRCULATION, AND
HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 0.5MB.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT (GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT) AND SHOW A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141000Z.//
NNNN

Meow

ECMWF預測進入南海才到TS，17日早上是巔峰，19日下午通過台灣本島和蘭嶼之間。

ben811018

熱帶性低氣壓９２Ｗ持續朝西北西進行，預計在下週一之前通過菲律賓，之後進入南海移動方向逐漸北轉，後期有不排除北上來到台灣附近，需要特別注意是否與北方鋒面結合為台灣帶來降雨。
　
９２Ｗ環流結構持續改善，有機會成今年第一個颱風「梅花」，巔峰強度大致介於熱帶性低氣壓至輕度颱風下限之間。
　
至於實際影響台灣及接近的程度，因為時間還太久，變數相當高，需幾天時間才能確定，請密切注意９２Ｗ的發展動態。