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FMS這報預期36小時以後三級強烈熱帶氣旋。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 110137 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 177.0W AT
110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 9
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION GOOD WITH PRIMARY
BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
STEERED WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.9 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 14.3S 178.3W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 14.7S 179.3W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.9S 179.9E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 14.9S 179.2E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110800 UTC OR EARLIER. |
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