B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.7N 122.7E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WELL DEFINED
BANDING. A 300154Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OVER LUZON,
REEMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
