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霧峰追風者|2017-8-31 10:12
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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-8-31 10:14 編輯
JTWC 02Z發布"TCFA"
WTPN21 PGTW 310200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 118.9E TO 19.6N 116.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 118.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY
240 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 302230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED,
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KTS) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29-31C). DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z.//
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