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04S.Irving 巔峰橫越南印度洋 南下轉化溫氣

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2018-1-3 08:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-17 16:05 編輯

  一級熱帶氣旋|熱帶氣旋  
編號:08 U |02-20172018 ( 04 S )
名稱 : Irving
Irving 2018-01-08 0518Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 01 03 08
升格熱低日期:2018 01 05 15

JTWC升格日期:2018 01 06 08
命名日期  :2018 01 06 08
撤編日期  :2018 01 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  

近中心最大風速:
澳洲氣象局 (BoM):35 kt
法國氣象局 (MFR):80 kt--01月06日12Z接續發報
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):90 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓:964 百帕

  過去路徑圖   2017RE02.png

1024px-Irving_2018_track.png
95S-INVEST-15kts-NAmb-5.0S-95.0E

20180102.2030.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.95SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-50S-950E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:BoM、MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作



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霧峰追風者|2018-1-4 15:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z評級low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8S
94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY COVERED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. A 040001Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED DEEP
CONVECTION PRIMARILY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 040313Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS REVEALED TIGHT ELONGATED TROUGHING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WITH AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, AND
AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE LLCC.
DUAL NASCENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE SUPPORTING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND DEEP CONVECTION. 95W IS LOCATED ON A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES (5-10 KNOTS) AND HIGHER,
UNFAVORABLE VWS VALUES (20-30 KNOTS) TO THE WEST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, FROM 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE TIMING BETWEEN 24 HOURS
AND LATER THAN 72 HOURS. MODELS PREDICT 95S WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abiosair.jpg 95S_gefs_latest.png 20180104.0620.himawari-8.ir.95S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.8.8S.94.8E.100pc.jpg


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zjk369|2018-1-5 15:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發佈MEDIUM
abpwsair 201801050500.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2018-1-5 16:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-1-5 16:56 編輯

BoM 升格熱帶低壓,編號08U,有機會進入MFR管區前命名。
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0724 UTC 05/01/2018
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.1S
Longitude: 94.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  05/1200: 11.8S  93.7E:     055 [105]:  040  [075]:  998
+12:  05/1800: 12.2S  92.8E:     070 [130]:  040  [075]:  997
+18:  06/0000: 12.5S  91.6E:     080 [150]:  040  [075]:  997
+24:  06/0600: 12.9S  90.2E:     095 [175]:  040  [075]:  997
+36:  06/1800: 13.5S  87.8E:     115 [210]:  040  [075]:  997
+48:  07/0600: 14.4S  85.3E:     135 [245]:  045  [085]:  994
+60:  07/1800: 15.8S  82.7E:     150 [280]:  045  [085]:  994
+72:  08/0600: 17.7S  80.3E:     170 [320]:  050  [095]:  991
+96:  09/0600: 22.2S  75.6E:     215 [400]:  045  [085]:  992
+120: 10/0600: 26.9S  71.2E:     300 [560]:  030  [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical low 08U has developed over the past 24 hours. T1.0 was assigned at 04
0600 UTC.

The system was located using visible and microwave imagery.

TC_SSMIS at 2350 UTC showed deep convection to the west and southwest of the
centre. A partial ASCAT pass at 0253 UTC showed 25/30 knot winds to the west of
the centre.

Dvorak: Over the past 6 hours a curved band on VIS/EIR of 0.4 to 0.5 yielded a
DT of 2.5. 24 trend is D with MET/PAT of 2.0. FT/CI set to 2.5. Intensity set to
40 knots with gales in the NW and SW quadrants.

Most recent imagery showed some deep convection just to the west of the centre.

UW-CIMSS at 05 0300 UTC indicated E'ly shear between 30 and 40 knots. There is
some equatorward outflow and good poleward outflow. SSTs in the area are about
28C with TC Heat Potential not particularly favourable.

08U is expected to gradually develop and may become a tropical cyclone overnight
or during Saturday as wind shear decreases.

08U is being steered by a mid level ridge to the southeast. The majority of NWP
indicates consistent west to southwest motion with the system crossing 90E [La
Reunion Area of Responsibility] around 06 0600 UTC.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.

IDW60280.png

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霧峰追風者|2018-1-5 22:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 12Z發佈TCFA
sh952018.20180105132300.gif 20180105.1330.himawari-8.ircolor.95S.INVEST.25kts.1002mb.11.3S.93.9E.100pc.jpg

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zjk369|2018-1-6 10:38 | 顯示全部樓層
04S IRVING
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 06, 2018:
Location: 12.5°S 91.6°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
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周子堯@FB|2018-1-6 10:40 | 顯示全部樓層

升格TC,BoM 00z命名為Irving
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 06/01/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Irving
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 92.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [239 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  06/0600: 13.0S  91.3E:     055 [105]:  040  [075]:  994
+12:  06/1200: 13.4S  90.0E:     070 [130]:  040  [075]:  994
+18:  06/1800: 13.8S  88.6E:     080 [150]:  040  [075]:  995
+24:  07/0000: 14.1S  87.2E:     095 [175]:  045  [085]:  992
+36:  07/1200: 15.3S  84.6E:     115 [210]:  045  [085]:  992
+48:  08/0000: 16.9S  82.0E:     135 [245]:  050  [095]:  989
+60:  08/1200: 18.9S  79.5E:     150 [280]:  050  [095]:  988
+72:  09/0000: 21.2S  76.5E:     170 [320]:  050  [095]:  987
+96:  10/0000: 26.0S  70.3E:     215 [400]:  040  [075]:  992
+120: 11/0000: 35.1S  71.2E:     300 [560]:  030  [055]:  998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Irving has formed to the west of Cocos Islands.

A Shear Pattern on overnight IR imagery has the centre approximately 15 nautical
miles from the strong T gradient yielding a DT of 3.0. Development is D- which
gives a MET of 2.5, PAT is also 2.5. FT of 3.0 based on DT. ADT at 05 2315 UTC
is 3.3.

UW-CIMSS at 05 1700 UTC indicated E'ly shear around 30 knots. Though convection
is located in only western quadrants this estimate continues to seem a little
high given the proximity of the estimated location of the centre to the
convection.

Moderately strong upper ouflow has  become evident on satellite imagery in the
last few hours.

SSTs in the area are about 28C with TC Heat Potential not particularly
favourable.

Tropical Cyclone Irving is being steered by a mid level ridge to the southeast.
The majority of NWP indicates consistent west to southwest motion with the
system crossing 90E [La Reunion Area of Responsibility] between 06 0600 and 06
1200 UTC.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW60280.png

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霧峰追風者|2018-1-6 11:11 | 顯示全部樓層
zjk369 發表於 2018-1-6 10:38
04S IRVING
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 06, 2018:
Location: 12.5°S 91.6°E

補JTWC首報,00Z升格''04S'',巔峰上望70KTS。
WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 13.1S 89.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 13.8S 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 14.9S 83.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.6S 81.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 21.4S 74.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.5S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 38.1S 72.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1173 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 052340Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC
04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TC 04S SHOULD
STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A
PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 051400).//
NNNN
sh0418.gif rbtop-animated.gif


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