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MFR 強度升"強熱帶風暴"，風眼隱現。WTIO31 FMEE 070815
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/2/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (IRVING)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 85.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO:
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5+
AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT EU
TENDANCE A SE RECHAUFFER TANDIS QU'UN LARGE OEIL EST APPARU SUR LES
IMAGES INFRAROUGES. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT UNE
CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK
OSCILLENT ENTRE 3.5 ET 4.0 MAIS LES DERNIERES PASSES ASCAT NE DEPASSENT
PAS LES 45KT. LA STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE D'IRVING EST SANS DOUTE
RESPONSABLE DE CETTE DIFFERENCE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC RECLASSE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC UNE INTENSITE DE 50KT.
PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION SUR LE SYSTEME IRVING,
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT BIEN EN ACCORD SUR SON EVOLUTION,
DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION. LA
TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU SUDEST
DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE PAR LE
PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A DEMAIN
SOIR AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EST DONC ATTENDU EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE PROCHAINE. ENSUITE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A L'AVANT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE.
MALGRE SA VITESSE IMPORTANTE, LES EFFETS NEFASTES DE CETTE CONTRAINTE
SONT PREVUS LIMITER DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS SON POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION PUIS FINIR PAR AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME MARDI. JEUDI LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FORTEMENT DIMINUE AU SUD DE
27S. IRVING COMMENCERAIT ALORS SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE. 
JTWC 06Z升一級颶風。
WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.5S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.2S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 070550Z HIMAWARI ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TC 04S SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z,
080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN 
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