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雖然略微減弱至一級,但本報大幅調高後期預期,已經上看125節,而責任區長達12年沒超過120節的系統。
- IDD20020
- TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
- Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
- at: 0711 UTC 17/03/2018
- Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcus
- Identifier: 20U
- Data At: 0600 UTC
- Latitude: 13.1S
- Longitude: 130.1E
- Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
- Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
- Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
- Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
- Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
- Central Pressure: 992 hPa
- Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
- Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
- Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
- Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
- Radius of 64-knot winds:
- Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
- Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/03HRS
- Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
- Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
- FORECAST DATA
- Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
- [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
- +06: 17/1200: 13.5S 129.5E: 020 [040]: 045 [085]: 990
- +12: 17/1800: 13.8S 128.8E: 035 [065]: 050 [095]: 989
- +18: 18/0000: 14.1S 128.1E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 987
- +24: 18/0600: 14.4S 127.2E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 985
- +36: 18/1800: 14.8S 125.3E: 080 [145]: 050 [095]: 984
- +48: 19/0600: 15.2S 123.1E: 100 [180]: 060 [110]: 978
- +60: 19/1800: 15.2S 120.7E: 120 [220]: 080 [150]: 968
- +72: 20/0600: 15.0S 118.0E: 135 [255]: 090 [165]: 960
- +96: 21/0600: 14.9S 111.9E: 180 [335]: 110 [205]: 948
- +120: 22/0600: 15.9S 106.9E: 270 [500]: 125 [230]: 946
- REMARKS:
- Latest radar imagery shows TC Marcus on the coast SW of Darwin. Position is
- becoming increasingly difficult as TC Marcus moves away from Berrimah radar.
- During the last 6 hours, the destructive core of TC Marcus passed directly over
- Darwin and has now spent 6-8 hours over land just inland of the coast. Marcus
- has been dowgraded from category 2 to category 1 based on a weakening of the
- cyclone's core, as indicated on radar, and due to surrounding coastal
- observations. A SSMIS microwave image at 0602Z confirms the weakened structure,
- when the strongest convection over water NW of the LLCC.
- Dvorak at 17/06Z: DT 3.0 based on 0.7 wrap curved band. MET is 3.0 and PAT is
- 3.5. FT based on DT of of 3.0, with CI held higher at 3.5. However, as the LLCC
- is over land, maximum winds are set at 45 knots.
- Recent observations:
- - Darwin Airport: 47kn at 17/0133Z. Gusts to 68kn [126 km/h] at 17/0130Z.
- - Darwin Harbour NTC: Gust to 70kn [130 km/h] at 17/0200Z. Minimum pressure
- 981.6 hPa at 0127Z.
- - Point Stuart reported gales to 35kn and gusts to 50kn briefly from 16/21Z to
- 16/22Z.
- The upper level ridge lies just to the south of TC Marcus. Water vapour imagery
- shows good outflow to the NW sector, weaker outflow to the S sector but
- constrained outflow to the E. CIMSS vertical wind shear at 17/00Z was easterly
- at 19 knots.
- The system is expected to maintain a SW track towards the Timor Sea as a mid
- latitude trough moves east across the Great Australian Bight and pushes the mid
- level ridge over southern Australia further north, creating a stronger easterly
- steering.
- Once the tropical low moves into the Timor Sea during tonight, development is
- likely to continue at a standard rate or faster, reaching category 2 prior to
- corssing the NE Kimbery coast on Sunday, although there is a small possibility
- of reaching category 3. Steering will remain easterly long term due to a strong
- mid level ridge to the south, taking the system into the Indian Ocean where it
- will continue to intensify strongly over open waters to a Severe Tropical
- Cyclone.
- Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
- ==
- The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1400 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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