t02436

06Z升澳式C3

周子堯@FB

風眼細小，逐漸清晰，BOM預測48小時內升至澳式C5，有機會挑戰南太風王
JTWC 12Z分析已來到T5.5，預計下一報風速將升到100kt

TPXS12 PGTW 191221

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)

B. 19/1200Z

C. 15.50S

D. 121.11E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/21HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET/PT N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0710Z  15.50S  122.67E  SSMI
   19/0717Z  15.48S  122.30E  MMHS
   19/0806Z  15.53S  122.18E  GPMI


   DAVIS

霧峰追風者

風眼開啟，JTWC 12Z強度升二級颶風上限，持續增強。

krichard2011

目前核心區域有非常密集的閃電發展
表示眼牆對流相當旺盛
甚至也不排除 Rapid Intensification 爆發性增強正在發生
短時間內可能出現強度暴衝的現象


補充
稍早閃電甚至已環起來成一個圈圈

圖片截自Weatherzone

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z強度升三級颶風，首次預測巔峰上看五級颶風。

TPXS12 PGTW 192137

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)
B. 19/2100Z
C. 15.19S
D. 119.21E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/1655Z  14.88S  120.08E  ATMS
   19/1820Z  14.95S  119.47E  SSMI


  BERMEA

BoM 強度升四級熱帶氣旋，目前眼牆在置換。

krichard2011

稍早19:00 UTC 眼牆閃電幾乎均勻圍成一圈
不過對流爆太強了 高層風眼遲遲無法清空
清晨的底層掃描顯示 Marcus 應該算是個針眼

霧峰追風者

分析到T6.0，不過高層始終無法清空...

TXXS23 KNES 201218
TCSSIO

A.  15S (MARCUS)

B.  20/1130Z

C.  14.4S

D.  115.5E

E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. LG
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY CDG RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.5 WITH
NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE DT CALCULATED EACH HOUR ENDING AT 1130Z
IS 5.8 WHICH DOES NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME. MET
IS 6.0 BASED ON A 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NUMBER TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z強度升四級颶風，預計24H後將轉向南下。