0908morakot

  極強氣旋風暴  
編號：ARB 03 ( 02 A )
名稱：Mekunu


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 05 月 18 日 20 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 05 月 22 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 05 月 23 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 05 月 28 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：阿曼 塞拉萊

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：95 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：100 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓：962 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
92A.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3.5N.67.3E


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

周子堯@FB

JTWC18/17Z評級Low。

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.5N
67.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1132 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUQM, OMAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TURNING AND
SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. A 181415Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 181617Z ASCAT
IMAGE REVEALS A WEAK, ELONGATED ALBEIT CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 15 KT
WIND BARBS TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) AND SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, PREDICTING 91A WILL
DEVELOP AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WHILE PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 03Z評級提升至Medium，機構看好發展。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 64.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 58.7E, APPROXIMATELY 755
NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE BUT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO WRAP
IN. A 210148Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH THE CENTER UNDER 5-10 KNOTS
VWS AND THE PERIPHERY UNDER 15-20 KNOTS VWS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31+ CELSIUS), WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL OVER OMAN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011

JTWC 發布 TCFA
近中心最大風速也來到 30KT 了

1. WTIO21 PGTW 211400
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
   
4. RMKS/
   
5. 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
   
6. 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 58.4E TO 12.6N 56.1E
   
7. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
   
8. ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
   
9. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
   
10. IMAGERY AT 211330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    
11. NEAR 8.3N 58.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
    
12. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    
13. NEAR 7.9N 58.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 58.2E, APPROXIMATELY 740
    
14. NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    
15. IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
    
16. CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND BANDS OF FLARING CONVECTION FROM
    
17. THE SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 211146Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
    
18. IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL FORMATIVE BANDING
    
20. DEVELOPING. A 210552Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
    
21. PRIMARILY 10-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO
    
22. THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
    
23. LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
    
24. KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST POLEWARD AND
    
25. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31+
    
26. CELSIUS), WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
    
27. MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
    
28. BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, THE
    
29. EXACT TRACK VARIES BETWEEN MODELS INDICATING A WIDE SPREAD FROM
    
30. EASTERN YEMEN TO CENTRAL OMAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    
31. ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    
32. TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    
33. SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    
34. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    
35. 221400Z.//
    
36. NNNN

複製代碼

霧峰追風者

IMD 編號ARB 03

Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that the Well Marked Low Pressure Area (WML) over southwest Arabian Sea has concentrated into a depression over the same region and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 21th May 2018 over southwest Arabian Sea near latitude 8.50N and longitude 58.50E, about 680 km southeast of Socotra Islands and 1060 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hrs and further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards and reach south Oman- southeast Yemen coasts by 26th May, 2018 morning.

jwpk9899

IMD預測強度將可達SCS上限
並且還離陸地有一段距離
還有增強空間

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z率先升格熱帶風暴，編號"02A"，巔峰風上望二級颶風，將侵襲阿拉伯半島。

霧峰追風者

IMD 強度升"深低壓"，有機會在今晚命名，巔峰上看VSCS。
rsmc (2).pdf (436.91 KB, 下載次數: 7)

2018-5-22 15:12 上傳

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