02A.Mekunu 近岸爆發阿拉伯半島史上登陸最強

Meow · 2018-5-22 23:22

命名Mekunu，看好發展。

The Deep Depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved north-northwestwards with a speed of 13 kmph during past 06 hours and intensified into a Cyclonic Storm ‘Mekunu’ and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of 22nd May 2018 over southwest Arabian Sea near latitude 10.20N and longitude 56.80E, about 410 km southeast of Socotra Islands and 810 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross south Oman - southeast Yemen coasts as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm between 530E and 550E close to Salalah by 26th May, 2018 morning.

霧峰追風者 · 2018-5-23 16:33

IMD 強度升"SCS"，JTWC 強度也來到熱帶風暴上限，風眼隱現，持續增強中。

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20180523.0730.msg-4.vis.02A.MEKUNU.60kts.978mb.11.5N.56.2E.100pc.jpg

20180523.0730.msg-4.ircolor.02A.MEKUNU.60kts.978mb.11.5N.56.2E.100pc.jpg

Meow · 2018-5-23 20:08

命名不到24小時，IMD升格特強氣旋風暴。

The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Mekunu’ over southwest Arabian Sea moved northwards with a speed of 11 Kmph during past 06 hours and intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of 23rd May 2018 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 11.80N and longitude 55.90E, about 230 km southeast of Socotra Islands and 610 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move nearly northwards during next 24 hours and then north-northwestwards and cross south Oman - southeast Yemen coasts as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm between 530E and 550E close to Salalah, around 26th May, 2018 morning.

Meow · 2018-5-23 20:59

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 018-05-23_0656Z.jpg

ben811018 · 2018-5-24 11:25

20180524.0250.f18.91pct91h91v.02A.MEKUNU.80kts.971mb.13.1N.55.6E.060pc.jpg

增強速度很快，即將站上C2規模~
風眼也正在建構中~!

另個觀察重點，
Mekunu的存在猶如一個幫浦加強跨赤道流及赤道偏西風，
並將水氣進一步往印度、斯里蘭卡及孟加拉灣一帶輸送，
夏季風正逐漸就位！
只不過，現在副熱帶高壓強盛，持續控制西北太平洋、菲律賓甚至延伸到中南半島，形成一道銅牆鐵壁，
西南季風就被阻擋在外，難以攻破.....

霧峰追風者 · 2018-5-25 12:08

JTWC 00Z強度升二級颶風，IMD 已評價85KT，預測有機會"ESCS"強度登陸。

TPIO10 PGTW 250313

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU)

B. 25/0245Z

C. 15.35N

D. 54.71E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT YIELD 5.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0237Z 15.37N 54.83E SSMS

VEERKAMP