(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 11W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.9N 105.6E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER LAND, BUT MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. A 210301Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WHICH STILL HAS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND CURRENTLY, THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHEASTERN TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
